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batsplat · 14 days ago

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Hi bat!!! I was the motogp beginner anon from a while back... About a month later and working my way thru old races from 2000 I have accidentally developed a deep and profound fondness of Sete Gibernau... is it fair to say he is THE prototype for everything Vale did to his later rivals? Your posts on him and their relationship are everything to me - they have given me much to think about, and also facilitated the brain rot! Any thoughts on their 'reunion & make-up' from 2014 onwards?

hi!! I really hope the race recs tag was useful lol, despite my obvious failure to actually finish answering that ask. and omg a sete convert!! it really is going to be half a dozen people soon, exciting times. I'm going to put a pin in the 'reconciliation' half of the ask because the other half was already long enough... and I decided to focus here on valentino's actual tactics rather than his emotions. I still think the sete rivalry did lay the emotional groundwork for subsequent rivalries - but I don't currently have all that many more thoughts from what I said here, here, here, here, here, here, and here (lol)

so yeah, I think the sete rivalry functions as a mix of a prototype and a warning - and it's the first bit I'll be talking about in this post. valentino does have a few rivals pre-sete who he has at least a little bit of tension with - biaggi most infamously, but also jorge martinez and harada in his 125cc/250cc days. and while all these rivalries are formative in their own right, they also come with a certain... spontaneity. valentino makes a flippant comment about biaggi to some reporters, a feud is born as a result. it's kind of the training wheels feud - valentino's just saying shit really, he's provoking biaggi sometimes deliberately and sometimes less so, it's all very earnest and youthful and unrestrained. while he's already a natural communicator, he's a lot less skilful in actually using the media to his own ends, to pursue an agenda or press home an advantage. he's just reacting to every situation as it occurs, leaving us with a feud that consists of mostly isolated flashpoints. that isn't to say there wasn't a sense of escalation - catalunya 2001 and its fistfight beckons - but it's missing a narrative arc... and the reason for that is that valentino is not quite yet exerting his authorial hand on events. obviously valentino is not, in fact, a god and isn't exerting perfect control how each rivalry unfolds - but it is noticeable how many of them end up having such a scripted feel to them. sometimes, this stage-managing didn't work out for him and he came out second best when the dust had settled - but more often than not, he played it to perfection. hence the nine titles

and it's that narrative autonomy that really becomes a feature of valentino's game during the sete rivalry. at first, this magic touch isn't really maliciously wielded against sete... they're not enemies, they're still going on holidays together, valentino is just using sete as a sounding board to work through some things. the stakes in 2003 aren't as much directly competitive as they are psychological - despite 'only' having a 29 point advantage 9/16 rounds into the season, valentino was probably always going to be fine on that front. he's not worried about losing the title... but he is feeling unhappy at honda, he is frustrated with how much he's being criticised, he hates to lose to sete. and so, he uses the humiliation of his sachsenring loss that immediately preceded the summer break, twisting it so that it becomes an inflection point of that season (and also that rivalry). he does all the mind games hair dyeing and decides to sign for yamaha and all of it, and then he bounces back to claim the victory at brno by .042s. where he does his extremely on the nose prisoner's celebration to perfectly define what that season was all about - he's breaking free and taking control of his own story. zero subtlety whatsoever. and that's the climax of the season... like, he's crowned champion in sepang (where he crucially brings back the prisoner celebration but indicates with the novelty lock that he is now free), and his defining victory that year is probably at phillip island... but essentially, his arc that year is resolved at brno. after that, he's reaping the rewards

this is still valentino playing it on easy mode relatively speaking but it's kinda freak behaviour to just decide he 'won't be taking any more prisoners', as he puts it in his autobiography, and then basically stops losing. uses his fury to drop fifteen seconds on the field in australia. remember this is the first time he wins valencia too, because he needs to say goodbye to his bike the correct way or whatever. okay

sete is a little bit incidental to the narrative that year - they're mostly just setting the stage for what's to come. we do get little hints... suspicions on valentino's part (whether founded or not) that sete was taking this competition business rather seriously after all. valentino's remarkably out of character face of thunder after losing at the sachsenring. how they're both playing off this rivalry as so so different to the valentino/biaggi fiasco... they're different, you see, they're friends! you can be rivals and respect each other. it's all fine. sete mainly functions as a plot device to put pressure on valentino - a new consistent rival emerging, one who wasn't supposed to be the challenger, a little older and smarter and without much of a track record of success. not the guy who should be challenging valentino. valentino is generally very pro the concept of rivals, even when he's obviously attempting to destroy them. he's aware that they're part of the show, that you need a great rival for a great fight, that beating the very best is what it's all about. also, obviously, it's an important way of motivating himself. valentino is made better for that sachsenring defeat, for having to sit with his mistake at the very last corner, for knowing he should have won that race and had allowed it to slip through his fingers. for that first half of 2003, he's all over the place, error prone, emotionally a bit of a mess - he's been winning so much, it really isn't hitting the same way anymore. he hasn't been winning the right way. sete reminds him of just how much valentino hates to lose. and valentino learns the lesson gladly

now, 2004 doesn't have quite so neat a turning point, and instead features multiple moments where valentino acts to take control of the season. the drama starts early, at welkom, featuring a bit of a biaggi cameo appearance at a time where biaggi was no longer valentino's major rival (though he does still feature in that year's title fight). as valentino describes in his autobiography, he knows demanding victory of himself and his team wasn't a realistic expectation for that race - but sometimes, you just have to tell yourself a story, engage in a little self-delusion... and, hey, maybe you can turn that delusion into reality. after that, it looks for a little while like that success might have been illusory, like valentino might be on the back foot on his weaker bike after all, with sete's back-to-back victories at jerez and le mans. and then you get another inflection point - the trio of races, mugello, catalunya and assen, where valentino takes control of the season after duelling with sete for the victory back-to-back-to-back. each race comes with its own special significance, from sete's rain dance comment at mugello and alleged yellow flag infringement, to his defeat on home turf at catalunya, to his inability to successfully play the gracious loser at assen. the cracks are appearing in the friendship, yes, but valentino is also wrenching back momentum to his side in rather a dramatic fashion. from then on, it looks like he might be able to see out the season in a straightforward manner

except, of course, he can't. because then you get qatar. I do increasingly feel like I have a fairly good grasp of what Really happened, but that's for another time... the key point is that it's a humiliating experience for valentino, both the penalty itself and then the crash, and it's one where he completely loses his head in a fairly uncharacteristic manner. plus, he hurt his pinkie finger. valentino could have emerged from that weekend cowed and chastened, having to backpedal on some of the... more creative remarks he'd made about sete. clearly, sete was expecting that valentino would do so - or at the very least not continue to escalate the hostilities. and it is during that sepang 2004 weekend that valentino's stage managerial skills are truly allowed to shine. the high drama of the presser, valentino's refusal to concede any ground to sete as sete had to realise in real time he'd wandered into the wrong genre and his previous close friendship with valentino counted for nothing. valentino's subsequent domination of the weekend, the imperious form as sete buckled when the title was in sight. the cruelty of valentino's celebrations, making sure to properly twist in the knife while he had the chance. title fight back on track

after that, of course, comes the process by which valentino unravels sete entirely. he presses home the advantage at phillip island, taking quite a few risks to snatch the win from sete on the very last lap - he did not have to win the race to win the title, but he did so anyway because he needed to beat sete. call it an investment for the future. the opening round of the following season brings with it the rivalry's single most dramatic moment that... well, it doesn't quite end the rivalry, as discussed in this post sete does still have plenty of chances to win in 2005 - but essentially valentino ensures at jerez that he will have an enduring psychological advantage. a victory that really should never have been dramatic! valentino learned his lesson from the sachsenring, he wasn't trying any dramatic last lap overtakes. he overtook sete with three laps to go at jerez, which should really have been that. as detailed in this post, it's his last lap mistake that even necessitates that dramatic final corner overtake. now, as it happens, everything works out perfectly for valentino. losing a home race like that on the final corner is absolutely brutal, valentino's deftly played post-race theatre and the perception that sete didn't stand up to him only makes things worse. valentino was always going to win the 2005 season, but he ensured in the very first race that there would not even be a title fight. but again! crucially! valentino was not planning this! the last lap of the race was very much not what he was intending to happen - it was an error on his part that could have easily cost him the win in rather painful a fashion that started all of this. valentino is ready to risk a crash when he shoves it up the inside of sete... his desperation is key, but so is his lack of planning

so that's where we're at with the sete rivalry... high drama, all these turning points and on-track and off-track theatre that coalesced into a narrative - of which valentino was the master. it feels different from the biaggi rivalry... this isn't just two guys that hate each other, it's a story. and when you frame it in those terms, when you speak to how it feels like valentino is flexing his authorial hand in helping these events unfold... well, then you do start seeing the blueprint for subsequent rivalries. the 2008 and 2009 seasons have a key similarity: a single race that completely changed the momentum of the season, remembered in part for a single highly memorable overtake that valentino inflicted on his title rivals. so if you take that trio of races - jerez 2005, laguna 2008 and catalunya 2009 - you're in a situation where valentino's three most famous overtakes weren't just fun or memorable in their own right, but fundamentally changed the dynamic of their respective rivalries. which... I mean, that feels unlikely, right? sometimes, dramatic races just happen - there's no guarantee they're going to completely transform the rivalry as well as the season. once can happen to anyone, twice is pretty striking, but three times? bit odd innit

I've already talked about this a bit here:

and I've just posted about this in considerable more depth in the context of the 2008 season, which we'll circle back to later. it's one of the most interesting seasons in terms of how the momentum shifts happen over the course of the year, which is why I've detailed the build-up to laguna in considerable detail on this blog. see posts on mugello, catalunya, donington, assen, sachsenring, and laguna itself. here's a basic overview of how the 2008 season unfolds:

the key turning points are valentino getting to grips with the bridgestones, the post-race catalunya test where ducati finally gets their shit together, and then the race at laguna. I don't think you quite get the sense of how dramatic a turning point laguna was if you just look at the results - it's important to emphasise that despite still being behind in the points, casey was the title favourite headed into that race. the idea was that once casey and ducati got going, we could easily be in for a repeat of 2007. just total domination. casey wins those three pre-laguna races very comfortably, having basically led every single practise session throughout those weekends. by the time you get to laguna, it's his fifth straight pole position. even if valentino comes in second to casey every single time for the rest of this season, the points gap is at this stage still way too small for that to work out for him. if you told someone before the race at laguna that casey would win every remaining race that season - sure, it wouldn't have been likely, but it definitely would've been seen as plausible. quite frankly it would've been seen as plausible even right after the race at laguna itself, as is reflected in the discourse in the immediate aftermath of the race

in 2009, the title fight is looking extremely open headed into catalunya. valentino is actually third in the standings before that race, behind casey and jorge - though of course nobody knew at the time that casey would not be in title contention for much longer. there is again this slight sense of valentino having his back against the wall... horrendous race at le mans, then brings it home to third in a similarly messy race at mugello because he knows he can't afford to be throwing away any more points. which... losing at mugello? the race he'd won seven times in a row? the one race in a season where you could reliably pencil in valentino's name as the winner, even if he often achieved his victories in rather chaotic a manner? the italian press was not happy with him, and even less so when jorge beats him to pole at catalunya. there are several references in the race commentary to the italian press writing valentino off, calling him washed (to paraphrase), which is objectively a teensy bit of an overreaction but. y'know. getting consistently beaten by your younger teammate is just not a good look. valentino needed that win at catalunya, both him and jorge desperately wanted to beat each other in a direct duel - and all in front of jorge's own home crowd

which, again. it all just feels scripted, doesn't it. that's what we're coming back to here - this feeling that from the sete rivalry onwards, valentino somehow manages to control the narrative to such an extent that things just keep perfectly working out for him. he wins both laguna and catalunya, everyone remembers those as two of his greatest victories - not just because he needed the win but because of how he executed them. the corkscrew, catalunya's final corner... these defining images that have outlasted the context of the seasons in which they happened. and crucially - crucially! they actually do manage to completely change the profile of their respective seasons. 2009 is a bit messier, though broadly speaking valentino is in control of that year's title fight post-catalunya. let's bring back 2008's results:

that laguna to motegi run? absolute sicko behaviour. casey is the faster rider at the very least in laguna, brno and misano. motegi is valentino's title-sealing race. valentino isn't really the title favourite anymore headed into laguna, and he literally does not lose another race until he wins the title. competing against prime casey. how does that happen, right

so that's the case for sete being the prototype: it's the authorial intent that's striking in these subsequent title-winning seasons, something that originated with sete. you just have these races where it's like valentino draws a little red circle around the date on the calendar and goes, 'okay, this is my momentum switch race'. like sepang 2004, his back is against the wall and he manages to change the complexion of the title fight in a single weekend. like phillip island 2004, he won't be denied his fairy tale victory. like jerez 2005, a single dramatic overtake permanently changes the rivalry. which is all well and good, but there's an obvious follow-up question. how is valentino doing this? why do his rivals not simply say no to being woven up in his dramatic narratives? why is he being allowed to pick and choose his momentum switch races? how does he keep getting away with this...

and it is at this juncture that I will present my five-step plan to playing god in local motorcycling competition, a foolproof (mostly) way of ensuring that the fates intervene on your side. here goes:

choosing the occasion

going in with a plan

playing the 'joker'

milking the moment

bite harder when the opponent is already bleeding

there you go. that's the lessons he learned from fighting sete that later allowed him to script his rivalries. I've cracked the code

let's go through them one by one. the thing is, valentino really did pick his momentum switch races in both laguna 2008 and catalunya 2009. obviously, he couldn't have predicted things would've worked out quite so perfectly for him, but he wasn't just playing it like any other weekend. and both times, he made a great call. at laguna, it's notable that he tells his confidantes he does not intend to let casey win the eve of the race - aka after qualifying has already taken place. laguna might be a track casey was incredible at the previous year and valentino had a rather mediocre record at, but at least valentino knew he'd be lining up right alongside casey. he still needed to get a decent start, a metric in which casey is exponentially more accomplished than valentino, but at least it was theoretically possible for valentino to be in casey's vicinity (unlike at the sachsenring). the track layout of laguna also lends itself to the kind of race valentino was intending to execute in a way that, for instance, the next race at brno just wouldn't be as suited for. laguna is narrow, fast, scary - not a great track for overtaking. which makes defending against a substantially faster rider a way more feasible proposition than it would be on the considerably wider brno track. laguna was also just before the summer holidays, which is kind of a great time to inflict a humiliating defeat on your opponent - you're making them sit with the defeat for a few weeks, rather than letting them wipe the slate clean a few days later. (some might say it's preferable to immediately have more races so you can strike while the other party is still vulnerable but, well, that kind of summer break gap is fantastic for lasting psychological damage.) plus, the mismatch between casey's and valentino's laguna record was such - the momentum casey had built up was so considerable - that absolutely nobody was expecting valentino to challenge for the victory. more detail on the pre-race chat here

biblical levels of over

so yeah. this is obviously easier said than done, but there's really no better race to win when the pre-race rhetoric reads like that. catalunya 2009 has a similar combination of circumstances that make it the ideal momentum switch race... like laguna, it's when valentino really really needed a win. unlike laguna, it's a circuit where valentino has an excellent record at - and has been known to win quite a few duels in his time (as well as lose a rather memorable one to casey two years ago). it's also a circuit where jorge is strong, and unlike with laguna it's no real surprise that the two of them will be fighting for victory. a good circuit for racing and crucially also one that is good for valentino's racing - obviously, it's the last corner overtake that lives on in everyone's minds, but valentino has made much use in his time of his ability to brake particularly deep into the infamous turn one. and of course, it is jorge's home circuit. after beating valentino at his home track at the last race, there is nothing jorge would have liked more than to win in front of his own fans. he's even got a special livery... his celebrations if he'd won that race would have been something to behold. no better time to beat him... even better that there was a moment when jorge will have thought he already had the race won... like casey, element of surprise - just at a different point of the weekend

so, onto the next step. going in with a plan. again, obviously valentino could not have foreseen either of his infamous overtakes unfolding exactly as they did - but it is a case where you can trace back the overtake itself to his intentions going into the race. it's not just a complete coincidence he happened to pull off these specific overtakes in the most dramatic manner possible in what happened to be very important races... in both cases, the overtakes were a logical consequence of valentino's pre-race planning. at laguna, valentino knew that he could not allow casey to get away in front. the entire race was built around the single principle that he had to discard his preferred approach of shadowing his opponents, and instead had to go all in on disrupting casey from the front. by the time the corkscrew overtake happens, lap four, it's also pretty clear where each rider is strong and where they are weak. for all the fighting between the pair of them, casey doesn't actually cross the line of any single lap in first position. that's because valentino knows that casey cannot be allowed to do so - with the ducati horsepower and casey's own skill, casey is inevitably stronger out of the final bend and into the first corner. if casey is allowed to lead there, it's basically game over. all the overtakes in that race between the pair of them happen in the bits of the track that are at or before the corkscrew - and the corkscrew is the last bit of the track where valentino has an actual edge over casey. so, if you've committed yourself to beating casey whatever happens, if you know that you cannot allow him to lead out of the final bend and you're basically on your last chance to prevent it, if you've committed yourself completely to that strategy... well, you're going to stick it on the inside of your opponent, come what may. obviously it still takes a lot of skill and luck for valentino to survive that off-track excursion, but it is essentially a more dramatic repeat of the overtake he executed on lap one. it's a consequence of actual strategy, not just spur of the moment genius

with catalunya, if anything it's even more straightforward than that - valentino tells reporters afterwards that he'd been visualising that final corner overtake in the week leading up to that race. obviously, he would have preferred not to be behind jorge at this point of the race but... well, he knew he had an ace up his sleeve, if he could just pull it off. and he knew he could pull it off, because he'd executed that exact move on casey two years before - as casey jokes about in the presser - just not on the final lap. obviously this is also a case of dramatic irony very much haunting jorge - who, for reasons that remain mysterious to me, went around the week before that race telling reporters that whoever was leading into that part of the track would have the race won. jorge's mental rigidity and his refusal to defend the line properly headed into a corner he assumed valentino would have no hope of overtaking him in is what cost him that race victory. so again, like with laguna, obviously this could very easily have not come off for valentino, obviously it could've gone pretty disastrously wrong. but also... well, valentino had thought about the possibility of needing that move before the race, he was mentally prepared, he'd already tried it out a couple of years earlier - it didn't just come completely out of nowhere

the next step is pretty simple. 'joker' refers to this clip of valentino talking about having bonuses... these moments each season where you can risk a lot and go beyond your limit. don't try your luck too often, but you've got to have a few times where you go that extra step. this obviously doesn't really make sense in terms of like,, tempting fate, that's not how probability work - but it is useful in terms of the underlying psychology. this way of allowing valentino to let go of any inhibitions, to ignore any considerations for his own safety, and instead make a deal with fate... these are the races where he will do whatever it takes to win and he trusts that fate will have his back. and yeah, various races that have been mentioned in this post must surely fall in this category. phillip island 2004, where he makes daring last lap overtakes in the penultimate round of the championship - if he crashes, he's going to have to try and wrap up the title at his bogey track. catalunya 2009 - that last corner overtake could easily, easily, easily have gone wrong, and left valentino in the extremely awkward position of having taking out both himself and his teammate to leave their chief rival with a cushier championship lead. both valentino and especially jorge have alluded to the risk of that move... yes, it's not discussed in quite the same terms as jerez 2005 or laguna 2008 - there was nothing wrong with the move, no contact, it was completely clean. but but that didn't make it any less risky

and the most obvious example is, of course, laguna 2008. valentino has straight-up admitted he was willing to do whatever it takes to stop casey from winning that race, which could easily have involved taking out both of them at a downright terrifying track. it's part of the reason why casey took so poorly to valentino's conduct - less than the actual moves, it is the mindset behind them that was so objectionable to casey. valentino made a bargain with the universe that he would ride without any fear or caution on a track that generally tended to make him quite nervous (didn't even think the corkscrew was suitable to walk down, mind you) - and it's that bargain that allowed him to throw the bike down a terrifying blind corner into the direct path of his title rival. which is all well and good, but. uh. casey didn't get to sign up for this

then you've got milking the moment, which is such a key element of immortalising these races. at sepang 2004, valentino has his nasty pre-planned sweeping celebrations to make fun of sete. at jerez 2005, it's all spontaneous - he's reacting to the animosity of the crowd and hamming it up with absolutely zero restraint. pumping his fist, waving at the crowd, jabbing his finger around... the drama of parc fermé, the fourth wall break to take the piss out of sete's injury en route to the podium, the performative celebrations to really stick it to the spaniards on the podium. the way valentino makes use of his celebrations as another weapon in the psychological warfare arsenal is discussed a bit in this post, including with a pretty lengthy section on the laguna 2008 celebrations. the key bit is that he already knew the lap four corkscrew overtake would be everyone's defining memory of the race - so that was the thing he immediately paid tribute to

the post also discusses how he behaves around casey in the immediate aftermath - how he just will not leave the poor bloke alone... it's something valentino doesn't really do with rivals who have just lost a race, he's not that type of confrontational character. which partly reflects the specific shape of his relationship with casey, but most importantly comes from an awareness that casey is not doing himself any favours with any of his post-race reactions. like, yes, valentino is clearly having fun teasing casey - but he also knows that casey is going to get shit for this behaviour, and the more of that is caught on camera the better. valentino even gets such a lovely rise out of casey when he interrupts casey's tv interview - giving us casey refusing valentino's handshake with cameras and microphones conveniently at hand - that he deploys the exact same tactic with jorge at catalunya 2009. to jorge's credit, for all that he clearly was very pissed off with valentino's celebrations, he manages to play it cool in front of the cameras and puts in one of his better performances as the gracious loser. which (beyond reflecting how valentino feels towards jorge vs casey) probably also helps to explain why valentino wasn't bothering him for the rest of the podium ceremony - it is jorge who pulls valentino off the podium to give him a proper hug, not vice versa

still, catalunya 2009 is in the same camp - because jorge and his team were pretty vocal in the 2010 title-winning documentary how irritating they found the triumphalism of the celebrations valentino and his team put on. again, it's valentino going full ham - yes, valentino likes his celebrations, but he does generally like to play it a bit more cool and jokey and above it all... not shaking his fist about so ferociously you worry he'll throw himself off the bike. there's also of course the lovely little touch of valentino securing his 99th win at catalunya 2009, a sign that the fates may actually for real be on his side -

- which, like with the corkscrew at laguna, is of course something valentino had the presence of mind to pay attention to. more discussion of this too in the 2008-10 jorge/valentino rivalry post

so yeah, milking the moment. making sure everyone remembers the race - and everyone remembers the best bit of that race. making sure it hurts as much as possible for the opponent, whether that takes the form of consistently hounding them or just being incredibly triumphalist in front of their home crowd. if possible, have a stab at letting them stitch themselves up as publicly as possible

might not be a lesson valentino learnt directly from how sete's reaction at jerez 2005 in parc fermé was seen as inadequate - but it's the kind of thing that does make you understand the importance of The Moment. these immediate reactions matter... valentino could play the gracious winner easily enough, but his rivals might well have been doomed whatever they did. sometimes it's about ensuring your opponents only have bad options, right?

and lastly. all of this would have been completely pointless, just an utter waste of time, if valentino had then gone off to crash in the next three races. this feels like one that's flirting with stating the obvious - yeah, no shit, it's better for you to keep up momentum after your big momentum switch race than to lose it again. but it is key! if you're making such a big fuss about your big dramatic win, then you've got to lock in and actually make them suffer... hurt the opponent when they're already bleeding etc etc. again, the 2004 playbook is instructive here - valentino promises sete won't win another race, and then he locks in to win the next three himself. one pretty comfortably after tormenting sete all weekend, one after a dramatic last lap battle, and the last at his bogey track (the final time he won there in his career). in 2009, this isn't all that spectacular - valentino wins the next race reasonably comfortably, but also... y'know, it's assen, he's good at assen, jorge has a more complicated record there. does allow him to secure his 100th win at the first time of asking. the other key moments that season is pulling off the sachsenring win by 0.099s (a margin he didn't commemorate but I'm sure he noticed), the misano win after the indy flopfest where he did the donkey ears celebrations, and doing such a good job phillip island pre-race that he managed to spook jorge into a first lap error. catalunya is the clear turning point that season, but valentino is also helped out by how casey becomes increasingly competitively irrelevant after that point. who knows how that season would have gone if casey, who obviously had not been psychologically affected by catalunya, had still been healthy. 2008 is more clear cut in that regard... I've just put out a post that discusses in plenty of detail how the immediate post-laguna stretch goes horrendously wrong for casey, but of course it is pretty notable that casey has his first ducati race crash at laguna and then immediately follows it up with another two out of the lead at brno and misano. it is also a span of races that is EXTREMELY relevant to the thesis of this post, since the writing around those races repeatedly pays direct tribute to the idea of valentino the storyteller:

or valentino the witch, whichever you'd prefer

as I repeatedly stressed in that post, there are absolutely other reasons why casey just happened to have that particular string of poor results - ones that have nothing to do with valentino's ability to exert pressure or cook up nasty spells. obviously, a big caveat in this entire discussion is that however you slice or dice it, the way all of this unfolded for valentino still involves a heavy helping of good fortune. but, well, you make your own luck!! valentino built a reputation for breaking his opponents off the back of putting a curse on sete - which means that by the time you get to casey, you've got people speculating about whether valentino is using black magic on the guy. it's a reputation valentino built on merit, but it's still one that acquired a kind of mythical status... and valentino was able to use that in its own right. those infamous skills of putting pressure on his opponents - ones that for a while there had extremely noticeably (and worryingly) not been working on casey. pick your fighter, a voice in your ear whispering to you mid-race or an invisible hand prompting you to make errors

and that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you write your own sports narratives. make your rivals despair in five quick and easy steps

IN CONCLUSION. obviously there's also other ways in which sete served as the prototype for later valentino rivalries - again, plenty of this blog has been dedicated to detailing the emotional repercussions of that feud and how it may have affected valentino's approach going forwards. but!! I wanted to take a different approach in this post and really just focus in on the actual sporting implications... how interesting and intricate momentum is in terms of its sports psychology, how adept valentino is at deliberately picking and choosing his moments to rewrite the narratives of a given season + rivalry. momentum is one of the most important psychological aspects of competition and obviously valentino is hardly the first athlete to be particularly skilled at twisting it to his advantage, but you have to give him credit for doing so in such a dramatic and also fun manner. not everyone can use curses to ruin their rivals

and yes, of course valentino did get lucky for some of these races to go so perfectly for him - you cannot plan the corkscrew overtake or that final corner catalunya drama, and both of them are so risky he would rather have avoided him. but on the other hand, yes, I still think there's enough evidence here to suggest he also made his own luck. very accomplished in using the psychology of competition to his advantage! and a lot of it did start with sete - the first rival against whom valentino wasn't just reacting. what valentino did to sete was more than that... it was about taking control of the narrative. a lot of what valentino did to his subsequent rivals, especially in the context of winning the 2008 and 2009 title fights, can be traced back to tools and tricks he first started wielding against sete. sete was the emotionally fraught trial run - what valentino did in 2008-09 was the actions of a man who had already mastered his craft

#i actually have a hot take about the current season related to this but i cut it out since it's only borderline relevant #incredible that the first paragraph was a belated response to the other ask and now this post is also in itself a belated response #my inbox.... help.... she's very sick.....#ik this blog has wandered off in a pretty casey-centric direction recently but trust i am always thinking about sete...#just more in dm's than on this actual blog. but like. feel free to come chat about him!! seriously!!#//#brr brr #curse tag #heretic tag #wall tag #batsplat responds #aloexy #i come from THE momentum sport - like maybe other sports think this but they're all wrong. it's definitely mine #so obviously i have spent much time thinking about momentum... on a way more micro level than here #and there are people who think momentum isn't real. but the thing is <3 they're wrong <3 #valentino really is for the sports psychology nerds. he's for the girlies who picked up their copies of 'winning ugly' age twelve #to pick an example completely at random. of course

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unproduciblesmackdown · 25 days ago

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among the boundless billions zaniness like laugh track as it definitely has that moment of expressing "rolling my eyes as The Left makes a kerfuffle of Acting like they have a stance as a veneer over the true belief that [xyz] is cool & chill actually" like what, approximate 0.000% chance wendy isn't, as usual, given the Objective Stance of "yeah yeah ohh we are cancelling involved parties talking about how we Don't watch this But. we all love this damn epic movie & already have it memorized so shut the fuck up, kids today" like. don't wanna really delve into how much billions thinks taylor or anyone is "really" trans / nonbinary like not too much benefit of the doubt in this material including what does provide info abt that specifically

& the general like [head in hands. what do you think any of this could possibly be about (you're the one that made your show at all about Power)] of "yes, it's bad/wrong to be someone that someone has done something to / victim of something" like that to be anti misogyny All Women Must Be Epic Winners b/c there's something to be proved: that they don't Deserve to be victims (of misogyny), not taken as a Given. while when we see some epic winner men stepping on other men (who need not all be guaranteed Winners so as to say misogyny is wrong), that's often Good, well beyond any assumption that various forms of basic disrespect / violation / patterns of emergent/entrenched power difference as Bad (for being things done to people, not for there being people they're being done to), & generally billions has to take an extra step when ppl get shitted on & tell us the Specific Cases when it was undeserved actually & someone was being mean to a specific person who didn't deserve that. & the specific cases when hey guess it wasn't that bad(tm) or when hey It's Okay that you're someone something was done to, in this case. & tell us what we were supposed to know all along like when someone who something was being done to (wrong Of Them, whether b/c they inherently deserve it no matter what, &/or b/c they failed to be someone who could make it Impossible to do anything to them, which, how do you do that besides being The Authority / Superior yourself, exactly? nonrhetorically? what if the in group vs out group / fascism / authoritarianism protected Me?) was actually being treated Too Well b/c ah well the abuse meant you were getting any attention, maybe it meant you were claimed as any superior's property, maybe it meant you weren't Already disposed of, as all Losers were in the end, You're Welcome.

obviously referring to winston where it's spelled out all the abuse towards him was deserved, & More than he deserved in the case of rian having more access & taking advantage of that, all for billions' enjoying its own sendoff there of, again, maximizing violation & violence short of [real violence is physical & leaves bruises / draws blood / Literally kills] which would be distasteful in general But doesn't it make wags look like the winner & winston the loser is that the former's completely unrelated completely impersonal ego blow gets way amplified taken out on winston, the most vulnerable recurring character when spyros as [first & ultimate Everyone Hates Him role] is more entrenched in there & billions still magnanimously pities tuk, as it does winston too, just not quite as much. again that like completely surface level realized power fantasy of forcing the mirror up to the Inferior so they're like nooo my inferiorityyyy & in doing so like, the projection in that lmao, we get it re: the valuing of & need(tm) for such Power Tripping & Reaffirming My Superiority & My Ego Restored; Everyone Claps like good god. & then for all ben & tuk are the slightly softer Two Too Nice Boys duo to the rian & winston quant duo, also like too nice i guess but not as much, ben is in charge of tuk but Any instance of rian being in charge of winston outstrips them in that "yay interpersonal abuse" dynamic, like then in the end billions may be like "yeah it's possible to be mean to them unlike how being mean to winston is actually Nice b/c he deserves everything he gets, we only vicariously enjoy it vs Feeling Bad for tuk & ben sometimes (still magnanimously & it's Not That Bad / just goofin)" like ben & tuk still Fail by not being people it's impossible to do anything to. & not Exceptions who anyone is really being Too Mean to. like if they were women, in which case, no problem surely with a "positive" kind of victim blaming where there is something Inherent that Will be victimized so hey how about to cancel that out there's this special Paternal Protection you Need always, Or Else? :) but instead they are men who are asian & is ben gay & w/tuk & winston nobody mentions glasses or fatness but billions doesn't really do much or very in depth textual mentioning of Anything, even w/nonzero mention that there may be gender & race in this world. a gay man, once. no disability. we just Know who are the inferiors who deserve it when they're treated inferiorly, or if they don't, they start deserving it when they fail to stop/avoid it, but if you start mentioning the factors behind who we all totally agree is inferior like whoa nobody was Saying any of that? being the real agent of oppression on the basis of the factors only You spelled out, much? nonbinary? i never say anything about the Gender Binary when i'm subscribing to it, sounds like You've created & enforced it. obfuscation & deflection onto [so Just Normal nobody has to label, explain, or argue it] couldn't serve a purpose & protect the existing power differences as they are. maybe You're the problem? perhaps you brought it upon yourself & now you're causing too much trouble standing up for yourself while everyone else's criticism is laser focused on you as the prior & continuing negative actions done to you are taken as a given / unquestioned / covertly protected to overtly encouraged?

anyway so wild if the Completely Normal(tm) Victim Blaming is uncritically recreated & oft embraced for "if you're watching this & don't wish you were axe / find him appealing" [billions as a sequence of vicarious power trips] purposes in this series....but a bit wild considering like this is your multiseason show that wasn't just purporting to be those power trips for [enough demographic & apparently specific personal tastes overlap w/creators] & was at all purporting to question the matters of power at play in the material, or yknow, at least to not be completely superficial material while said material is textually & thematically all about power difference being leveraged, how, the consequences, & so on. thus i will have to intermittently talk about it forever like this like lord unbelievable. & the funny little & sometimes less funny less little characters it has trapped in there so that those of us who were never meant to be in the audience can be cursed with this knowledge. like i have some feedback. "imagine not victim blaming" & "imagine adjusting your perspective can go beyond superficial layers added to politely defer to some other ppl while they're present but really like cmon do they deserve that. am i not just saying what we're allll thinking"

#another random night another Verbal Effusion of [forehead to hand]#winston billions #who needs actual questions about power or the consequences of getting to consider others Lessers & acting accordingly #when we can last minute be like uh wendy is god actually. take it away wendy (wait she just does whole other shit half the season)#okay Now take it away wendy i guess b/c the series is dead set on you being the Moral Center #if mostly b/c gosh everyone either loves owning you as pseudo wife or correctly recognizes & defers to your superiority #the scene i couldn't bear to sit through at the start of s7 way too long sequence of wendy Going To Work to the ''cuz im awesome'' song #i was like. lol. i was like okay that is wendy's mood / perspective then. Wrong. it was billions conveying Fact to the audience. rip #abt as great setup for ''the only other shoe that finally dropped was that of Yeah It's This Completely Surface Level'' as possible (:#prince has exactly the same attitudes & actions as wendy does? uh well you see. it's just bad when he does it #if only more wendys were in charge. if only we go ''well even if it's bad if wendy does it? or axe or whoever? Could Be Worse''#nothing to analyze in the [but at least it's not worse] dead end re: justification of Power Leveraging & minimization of its consequences #tl;dr just the victim blaming embraced everywhere & the idea that everything that Deviates from the Norm Too Ethically Mindedly #is just that veneer slapped on overtop of [haha but truly: the norm] like no but seriously we all know It's Not That Deep(tm)#even for the characters written to exercise this [my Extra Mile Ethics] trait regularly it's expressed as this Polite Addendum #to the [what's Really at play] normal. the And Enbies tacked on; that's that on that & it Is an extra veneer to the norm #prince asking if taylor's changing up their pronouns; no more Meant a red flag than him immediately shitting on winston i'm sure #yet yknow why tf suppose taylor more than anyone else would Change Pronouns. taylor who the series also only ever shows as being #misgendered As A Woman. whose drag / cisguise As A Woman is not treated in the same way a man's would be / is #whose emotive / expressive affect isn't either. billions like [the genders are m/f] to [perhaps also amab/afab] Tacked On #as something politely Extra you do to their face that doesn't actually change (threaten) your idea of what's just Normal & True #like it's normal & true that ugh god don't you hate the autistic people around you? don't you wish you could go sicko mode on them #so that they couldn't be around you anymore & they'd have brought it upon themself & really it was good of you b/c The Group Cohesion #thanks you & b/c you just gave them free ABA? yes yep Surely Unquestionably #problem isn't abuse & concomitant violation in & of itself. it's Bad to be someone that's done to. we will announce Exceptions #rest of you either you brought it upon yourself or you failed to Correct that you're not someone who inherently deserves it #that is: someone who just can & will Stop It if done to them. well so you see winston pushing back is ignored or treated to further #backlash & then he withdraws (expression of his experience / creation of a consequence which tells the other Stop Doing This)#&/or otherwise conveys displeasure / being hurt (same as before. ''uh well push back / express xyz'' ppl did & were steamrolled/ignored)

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